COVID cases have been rising for six weeks in Brazil, and Fiocruz sees signs of rising hospitalizations
The upward trend appears in 19 federative units, but the incidence of severe cases remains low; experts stress vaccination for at-risk groups.
Translated from the Portuguese original by the Panorama newsroom. Read in Portuguese
Summary written by the Panorama newsroom from the sources listed below. Facts are attributed to the original publications.
COVID-19 cases have been trending upward in Brazil for six weeks, in 19 federative units (states plus the Federal District) and across all age groups, according to Health Ministry data compiled by g1. A bulletin from Fiocruz (the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a federal public health research institute) released on Thursday (5th) also identified signs of growth in severe cases in different regions of the country.
Even so, the indicators remain low: the ministry rates disease activity as low risk in every state, and Fiocruz reports a low incidence of severe cases. In private laboratories, the test positivity rate has been rising for nine weeks. In 2026, 118,851 cases of COVID-related flu-like illness had been reported as of November 4, a figure that does not include undiagnosed infections.
According to Fiocruz's InfoGripe system, there are signs of an increase in severe cases in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul and the Federal District; in Mato Grosso, the coronavirus is the main driver of the rise in severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases. So far this year, up to October 31, there were 3,479 SARS hospitalizations in which the virus was detected and 437 deaths. Total hospitalizations for respiratory illnesses, however, are falling.
For infectious disease specialist Renato Kfouri, vice president of the Brazilian Immunization Society, the rise follows the expected behavior of respiratory viruses, with waves fueled by new variants and by susceptible people, with no sign of a change in the disease's severity. About 90% of samples sequenced this year belong to the XFG lineage or its descendants.
The main recommendation remains vaccinating those at higher risk of complications. People aged 60 and over should get doses every six months, pregnant women should be vaccinated during each pregnancy, and immunocompromised people need periodic doses. "The main form of prevention against severe cases and deaths from Covid-19 is vaccination," said Tatiana Portella, the Fiocruz researcher in charge of InfoGripe.