Super El Niño could cause more than 850,000 heat deaths by March, projection estimates
Climate Impact Lab nearly doubles its previous estimate; Brazil could see about 19,000 above-average deaths between October and March.
Translated from the Portuguese original by the Panorama newsroom. Read in Portuguese
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The strong El Niño under way could cause about 857,000 deaths linked to extreme heat worldwide by March 2027, estimates the Climate Impact Lab, a group tied to the University of Chicago. The projection was released the week of October 30, according to g1.
The number is almost double September's estimate of approximately 451,000. The scientists explain that they began including March 2027 in the period analyzed and replaced temperature forecasts for August and September with observed data, which were higher than expected. August 2026 was the hottest August on record.
Of that total, about 373,000 deaths are expected between October and March. Brazil could record approximately 19,000 above-average heat-related deaths in the period.
Countries of the Global South are expected to concentrate most of the victims. Nigeria (about 56,000), India (55,000) and Indonesia (29,000) lead the projections, which take into account both heat exposure and each population's vulnerability and capacity to adapt.
According to the latest projections, there is an 83% chance that this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950. The group launched a tracker with monthly estimates for about 3,700 administrative regions and promises monthly updates.