Copernicus projects 2026 will again exceed 1.5°C of global warming
The European service puts the chance that the Paris Agreement limit will be breached this year at over 99%, with 2026 very likely to be the second-hottest year on record.
Translated from the Portuguese original by the Panorama newsroom. Read in Portuguese
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The planet's average temperature in 2026 is expected to be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, with virtual certainty, a probability above 99%, according to a monthly bulletin released this Friday (6th) by Copernicus, the European Union's climate monitoring service, DW reported. If confirmed, this will be the second calendar year to cross that threshold, after 2024.
According to the agency's statistical model, warming in 2026 should land between 1.56°C and 1.61°C. Copernicus considers it very likely that the year will end as the second-hottest on record and puts at 20% the chance that it will match or surpass 2024, the record holder so far. The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed the limit set in the Paris Agreement.
The bulletin also shows that October was the hottest ever measured for that month, with an average surface air temperature 1.75°C above the 1850-1900 period, repeating the monthly record already set in August. According to the service, an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activity.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus, noted that the month continued the pattern of marked warming, with record ocean temperatures.
The data come on the eve of COP31, the UN climate conference, which begins on Monday in Turkey after Australia gave up hosting the meeting. As DW noted, 2026 was marked by deadly floods in Nepal, heat waves in Germany and across Europe, and major wildfires in Indonesia.