Post-election Focus survey raises inflation, interest rate and dollar forecasts
The Central Bank's first bulletin since Lula's reelection shows more pessimistic economists: higher inflation, a higher Selic and weaker GDP.
Translated from the Portuguese original by the Panorama newsroom. Read in Portuguese
Summary written by the Panorama newsroom from the sources listed below. Facts are attributed to the original publications.
The financial market has revised its bets on the Brazilian economy for the worse. According to g1, the Focus Bulletin released Tuesday (3) by the Central Bank, based on a survey of more than 100 institutions, was the first conducted since the reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 25.
The inflation estimate for 2026 rose from 5.19% to 5.22%, while the 2027 estimate jumped from 4.34% to 4.76%. For 2029, the projection climbed from 3.50% to 3.98%. The country's target is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below.
On interest rates, analysts maintained their expectation of further cuts, but less intense ones. The Selic, currently at 13.75% a year, is expected to end 2026 at 13.50%, which implies only one additional cut, rather than two. For the end of 2027, the forecast went from 11.75% to 12.5% a year.
Economic growth was also downgraded. GDP in 2026 is expected to grow 1.76%, versus 1.80% the previous week, and 1.20% in 2027, compared with 1.31%. The exchange rate moved in the same direction: the forecast for the dollar at the end of this year went from R$ 5.05 to R$ 5.34.
According to g1, the Central Bank has said that slower growth is part of the strategy to contain inflationary pressures, in a scenario in which the government has adopted stimulus measures and debt relief.