Government forecasts up to 40% rise in dengue in 2027 due to El Niño
Health Minister Alexandre Padilha says he wants to resume the Butantan vaccine, suspended in June after serious reactions, but gives no deadline for a decision
Translated from the Portuguese original by the Panorama newsroom. Read in Portuguese
Summary written by the Panorama newsroom from the sources listed below. Facts are attributed to the original publications.
Brazil's Ministry of Health estimates that dengue cases could rise by 20% to 40% in 2027, driven by the effects of El Niño on the climate, Folha de S.Paulo reported. The projection was presented at a press conference on Wednesday (4), without a breakdown of the data. The ministry also expects an increase in other arboviral diseases, such as chikungunya.
According to Minister Alexandre Padilha (Workers' Party, PT), the rise combines the climate phenomenon with the dynamics of the disease itself: after two years of falling cases, more people are susceptible to certain serotypes. He said drier regions, such as the semi-arid region and the Amazon, could be hit harder.
A report by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) released in October projects about 1.5 million probable cases in 2027 even without factoring in El Niño, a figure close to 2025's (1.66 million) and above the 489,197 probable cases counted so far this year. In a strong El Niño scenario, the study forecasts, between September and early 2027, increases ranging from 49.1% in the Northeast to 138.2% in the South.
Padilha also said he wants to resume using the single-dose Butantan-DV vaccine in the public health system (SUS), which was suspended on June 8 after 42 cases of serious adverse reactions, including two deaths. The minister says he is awaiting safety analyses and gave no deadline, but said he hopes the vaccine will be available "at least next year."
In the meantime, the public network has only Qdenga, offered to adolescents aged 10 to 14; according to Padilha, expanding that group is not under discussion. In 2026, the country has recorded 368 dengue deaths, with another 116 under investigation.